November (WK2) Forex Market Update

After the confirmed overall American Dollar strength from the previous days, this week was mostly about the pullbacks. Price is still showing us trending market behaviour although the week was mostly about watching small retracements around most currency pairs. This was obvious on all the majors with AUD, NZD, JPY, CAD, EUR and GBP all trying to force a strengthening signal although not in a way that could jeopardize the current cyclicity.

On the Indices side, the recovery seems to still be in order although the week was also about retracements. Prices on all European and American indices lost part of the gains from the previous couple of weeks, but the overall moves are still to the upside. Nikkei on the other hand continued the recovery from the past 3 weeks while the Hang Seng is now showing lower lows and lower highs looking more and more like a short trend.

On the Commodities side, Oil started to show prices consecutively lower than 43 for the first time in weeks as Gold seems to have found a support level at 1085 finally stalling the drop that started after the retest of the resistance level at 1180.

Best Trades this week

  1. WTI Crude (Daily Chart) – Range Short – 05.11.2015 – An inside bar clearly bouncing on the 48 upper level of the range established for a few weeks now was the trigger for this short trade. Price went steadily to the lower level at 43 and kept going. Currently at +2,5% profit.

WK 2 blog image

EFFECT OF THE NEWS LOOKING FORWARD

After the terrorist attacks this weekend it is expectable to some reaction from the markets. We are cautiously paying attention to any news break regarding this subject.

As for the periodical news, this week will be once again filled with some announcements that will certainly help is pointing the overall direction of prices:

  • Monday should start moving faster in the morning with the speech from ECB president Mario Draghi;
  • From Monday to Tuesday, all eyes will be on the Monetary Policy news from Australia and on the Inflation numbers from New Zealand;
  • The FOMC meeting minutes should dictate the outcome of the daily price action on Wednesday as the week;
  • On Thursday, the press conference from the Bank of Japan should be the main event;
  • And on Friday we will be witnessing (yet) another Mario Draghi speech early in the morning.

As usual, we recommend caution around the news and although the week will be certainly about making the most out of the current trends on both our End of Day positions and on more aggressive intraday trades.