November Market Update (Week 4)

Another slow week was the prognostic for the Thanksgiving dinner in the US this Thursday. After the consolidation seen on the major currency pairs, this also proved to be the first slow week for the Yen crosses. As December is usually the beginning of a short but steady trading month we shall see if this is finally the return to the overall downtrend supported by the Dollar strength or the end of these 4 months overall trends.

The American indices are still breaking new all time highs as the metals continue their struggle against recent support levels. Oil price is now at 73 and going….

Best Trades This Week

  1.  AUDNZD (Daily Chart) – Range Breakout Short – 24.11.2014 – This range was finally broken after 3 months. The 1.09 level was broken to the downside on the 25th after a clear seller inside bar that made us place the order after confirmation from the converging RSI. Price now at showing a +2% profit. The next level of support can be seen at 1.0640 and a respective 1:5 risk:reward ratio.
  2. EURGBP (4h Chart) – Range Short Trade – 19.11.2014 – a clear price action signal on a strong and recently tested resistance level proved to be a good choice. Currently at +2% profit after bouncing of the moving averages. A more aggressive approach might let the price run until the next support level at 78.
  3. AUDCAD (Daily Chart) – Range Breakout Short – 21.11.2014 – Another breakout this week at the AUDCAD pair broken after a few weeks. This time, the 0.97 level was finally defeated on the 23th after a perfect high test bar. Price now at showing a +1% profit and a potential risk:rewrd ratio of 2,5% at the next support level at 0.94.

EFFECT OF THE NEWS LOOKING FORWARD

As usual, December will be the beginning of the five-week shopping spree that only terminates next year. Typically, the markets also tend to follow this trend as December and January tend to be particularly good for the stock market.

As stated on the last weekly reports, major moves are expected in the case of a positive vote from the Swiss referendum on the 30th as this would definitely dictate the direction of Gold price for the next months, maybe years.

Oil is now at the 73 level as the trend continues to be supported by the US production. Rumours have been heard about the remaining ´sales´ price until the US elections next year. As always, the charts will show us if the ‘cheap gas = happy voter’ model is here to stay…