March (WK1) Market Update

This week we finally witnessed the EURUSD breaking the 3 week range that is was stuck on. Even after the ECB press conference where a pullback seemed to be the first impression, price just kept pushing down and even broke the previous low.

Regarding Cable, and checking the weekly time frame, price seems to be now at a renewed phase 1 after bouncing off the moving averages while the JPY crosses seem to be at an indecisive moment with no decisive moves.

On the Indices side, the European Stock Markets remain pushing into new all time highs – FTSE, CAC, DAX… The American indices slowed down this week although this might just be the usual retracement before picking up once again. On the Asian side, Hang Seng still stuck at a range despite threatening the high from September while the Nikkei is still breaking all time records near 19000.

 

As for the main commodities, Gold and Silver are still in a downwards trend for over a month now and still showing no signal of stopping. Oil is now at a range proving that the overall downtrend from the previous months met a resistance range in February between the 54 and 48 levels.

 

Best Trades this week

  1. EURUSD (Daily Chart) – Breakout Short – 26.02.2015 – After a very tight triangle/range for the past 3 weeks, EURUSD finally broke to the downside with the overall trend. It is now at +1,5% profit after a convincing break on the 26th. Price is still pushing downwards as we can even see the break of the previous low at 1.1090. This could be one to let run…

20150305_D1EURshort

  1. GBPCAD (Daily Chart) – Reversal Shorty – 25.02.2015 – After bouncing 2 times off the resistance level at 1.93, price finally reversed after the big seller bar on the 25th. Stochstic divergence confirmed it and this is now at a +1% profit. As a reversal trade, we recommend extra caution when managing it.

20150305_D1GBPCADshort 

 

EFFECT OF THE NEWS LOOKING FORWARD

Next week starts with the G7 meetings so there can be some volatility depending on the comments made outside the meeting room.

We are also going to be paying attention to ‘kiwi’ on Wednesday as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is announcing the monetary policy for the next quarter.

With an apparent renewed strength from the US Dollar, it is expectable to see the Majors and Minors resuming the overall trend. We are waiting for the pullbacks so we can place our stops at a logical place. As EURUSD is (finally) back to the downtrend patterns – once again presenting lower highs and lower lows – we should expect the other crosses to follow. Regarding the Indices – hold and wait for the right price action on the pullback.

This will also be Non Farm Employment announcement week so (you know the drill) – protect your positions and don’t ‘play’ when the risk is bigger…