June (WK2) Market Update

Last week the currency market really started moving when NZ Official Cash Rate was reduced to 3.25% on Wednesday evening. The gap on most ND crosses was apparent and gave an extra boost to the ongoing trends.

The main subject is still the Greek debt. Although there were some conversations between the Germany, France and the Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras there are still decisions to make and therefore although the ECB believes that there will be an agreement and raised the ceiling for emergency assistance to Greek lenders by 2.3 billion euros.

On the charts, we could see all this indecision particularly on EURUSD but also on most majors and minors. The only exception goes to NZD while on USDJPY the pullback finally happened.

On the Indices the countertrend moves continued and in both Europe and US despite the (fake?) recovery on Wednesday and Thursday that was completely taken away on Friday. On the commodities side, absolutely nothing new from the past 6 weeks.

 Best Trades this week

  1. GBPNZD (Daily Chart) – Continuation long – 10.06.2015 – Another good trade on this uptrend. Showing consistent higher highs and higher lows week after week we were just expectiong the right price action to jum on tis one, again. Taking the low test bar as the entry, this trade is currently at around +2,5%.

20150612_GBPNZD

EFFECT OF THE NEWS LOOKING FORWARD

The week will still be about the Greek debt. Starting Monday, the ECB press conference might push the currency market forward.

On Wednesday the FOMC press conference might once again shed some light on the time and final decision on the US interest rates. As usual, any unexpected tone will certainly be visible on our charts – extreme caution recommended.

On Thursday, the Long Term Refinancing Option numbers from the ECB turn the spotlight into the Eurozone again and the weekly focus turns its heads to the Bank of Japan press conference on Friday.

Trading wise, and regarding the currency market we will obviously be paying close attention to all these moments, but we are above all waiting for some more decisive price action that will dictate the next trends. In terms of potential opportunities, we are looking at the NZD and the JPY crosses and counting on the price action to signal the right timing to take the next trade.

Regarding the Indices, as the pullbacks continued, there are reasons to believe that there are still good potential entries on the European markets. As for the American Indices, we will also wait for the price action as usual but we will prefer if the resistance level that has been acting as a wall for the past months is definitely broken, before looking into any price signal to enter the market. As for the commodities, a breakout approach could be the way to go now but we are still holding for the ‘break and retest’ on both Gold, Silver and Oil.