February Monthly Update

WEEK 1

EURUSD finally pulling back as dollar strength apparently loses some of its strength – range on Cable, pullback against the Canadian Dollar and support found on AUDUSD and NZDUSD.

Indices – European Stock Markets still showing significant strength. DAX in new all time high, CAC reaching 4.700 for the first time. American and Asian indices still stuck on a range from December.

Gold and Silver showed some indecision after the uptrend of the last few weeks while Oil finally showing some signals of slowing down.

WEEK 2

1500 pip gap when the Swiss National Bank (SNB) stopped its 3 year old peg of 1.20 Swiss francs per euro. All the other swiss franc crosses did about the same chaotic unexpected moves.

USDollar continued to show its strength against Eur and Pound as the downtrends continued. JPY crosses back to October levels as Gold assumes the upward direction.

Nasdaq, Dow and the S&P in a sideways pattern and Oil still heading down towards the 35 level.

WEEK 3

Mario Draghi announces the bigger than expected QE program at over 1 trillion Euro package. Euro dropped quickly against the Pound (0.75) and US Dollar (1.13).

USDCAD upward trend continued as the monetary policy report confirmed the direct correlation between the current low Oil prices and the Canadian Dollar. AUD and NZD broke the support level resuming the overall downtrend from July 2014.

Indices – clear positive reactions to the ECB announcement with both the European and the American Indices showing major movements to the upside. DAX and CAC seen at all time highs again.

WEEK 4

Still a (too) quiet market after the settlement between the Greek government and the Eurozone. The currency market in the first apparent signal of a breakout after being stuck at the same range for the last 3 weeks.

Stock market really moving with almost all the Indices breaking new all time records.

Best Trades in February

  1. GBPJPY (Daily Chart) – Reversal Long – 03.02.2015 – After a triple bottom bouncing off the 200 exponential moving average and a significant horizontal support level, as well as a confirmed divergence on the stochastic oscillator, the engulfing buyer bar was our excuse to take this trade long. Currently at a +2% and confirmed by the overall GBP strength we are going to protect our position as well as continue to pay attention to new potential opportunities.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monthly_20150227_GBPJPY_D1

  1. NASDAQ (Daily Chart) – Reversal Long – 02.02.2015 – A reversed head & shoulders bouncing off a recent support level, also along with a divergence on the stochastic oscillator, after the low test bar on the 2nd we were triggered into a renewed uptrend eventually becoming the new all time high on this Index. Now at a +2,5% profit we are now waiting for a sell signal to manage our trade.

Monthly_20150227_NASDAQ_D1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current opportunities – these are hypothetical trade setups and not all trades will trigger or setup. It is important to seek guidance on trading these setups before risking your own money. Below is the current Gold Daily chart.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monthly_20150227_Gold_D1

Next month, the bias is still on the trend following side:

  • On the currency market, we are (patiently) waiting for the market to come ‘back from the dead’ and restart the cyclicity and normal behaviour we are all used to;
  • It should also be a turning or continuation moment on the commodities side as Gold, Silver and Oil are all decisive points with the metals at a potential turning point from phase 1 to phase 2 and Oil going sideways for the whole month of February after an 8 month long downtrend;
  • On the Indices side, after all the new all time records all around the several markets, we are expecting prices to continue to rise and present the usual trend following retracements to allow other or more opportunities.

‘See’ you in April!