Category Archives: Blog

Is the Fed ahead of the curve?

Breaking  news: the US consumer is fighting for its life, long live the US consumer. The latest retail sales report from the US was unimpressive, retail sales, when you exclude auto sales and gas, were flat for September, and the August figure was revised down to just 0.1%. This is big news, the US consumer’s

Italy risks help GBP, and oil retreats as Saudi’s back down

The big move in FX overnight was the pound, which was the second worst performer in the G10- space, just behind the Swedish krona. The driver was none other than Brexit and more reports about deadlocked talks and slipped deadlines. The facts around Brexit haven’t changed at the start of a new week: there is

NFP preview: Expectations are high, but will NFP disappoint?

The US labour market data for September will be released on Friday 5th October at 1330 BST. The market’s official expectation is for a headline Non Farm Payroll figure of 185k for September, down from August’s reading of 201k. However, with a recent spate of spectacular economic data out of the US, and positive sentiment

Week Ahead: October 10th 2018

The trading week may have been determined by the US Non Farm Payrolls last week and the sharp rise in US Treasury yields, but some key fundamental events are taking place this week which may also trigger volatility in financial markets. We are looking at three key events for financial markets this week.   Chinese

Trade Idea: More room for the loonie to run

There will be traders who are worried that they have missed the recent good run for the loonie. We think that there could be more gains to come, and the Canadian dollar is one currency that could do well vs. the USD in the coming weeks. We think this for four reasons: 1, The US-Mexico-Canada

Eurozone debt crisis 2.0?

The big news on Tuesday is that Italian bond yields are lurching higher once more and have tested the air above 3.4% earlier today. This is spooking the markets, with European stocks a sea of red and safe-haven currencies benefitting. The markets have seen a Eurozone debt crisis unfold before: first one country goes down

Week Ahead: 1st October 2018

As we start a new quarter, investors will be watching some key economic data releases in the coming days that could set the tone for FX and stock markets in the coming weeks and months. Below we point out three key events to watch out for this week. 1, Japanese Tankan Index: Q3 Early on

Trade Idea: Why US indices could be at their peak

The Fed may have raised its GDP projection for 2018, however, bad omens for US growth are starting to mount. The Markit PMI report for September saw a steep decline in the composite index, which fell to its lowest level since June 2017. As you can see in chart 1 below, the Markit PMI index

Initial Fed thoughts: No surprises from the Fed as dollar stays low, for now

The Federal Reserve hiked rates as expected and pointed to a further rate hike in December; however, expectations for rates in 2019 remained unchanged. On the growth front, the 2018 GDP projection was raised from 2.8% to 3.1%, the 2019 expectation for GDP was raised a touch to 2.5% from 2.4%. However, this wasn’t enough

Week Ahead: 24th September 2018

This is a busy week for financial markets, with plenty that could drive asset prices. Below, we look at three key events to watch for this week. 1, The Italian Budget After months of discussions and market nervousness, the deadline for the fragile Italian coalition government to deliver its inaugural budget is Thursday 27th September.