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By 15 October 2018

Is the Fed ahead of the curve?

Breaking  news: the US consumer is fighting for its life, long live the US consumer. The latest retail sales report from the US was unimpressive, retail sales, when you exclude auto sales and gas, were flat for September, and the August figure was revised down to just 0.1%. This is big news, the US consumer’s

By 15 October 2018

Italy risks help GBP, and oil retreats as Saudi’s bac ...

The big move in FX overnight was the pound, which was the second worst performer in the G10- space, just behind the Swedish krona. The driver was none other than Brexit and more reports about deadlocked talks and slipped deadlines. The facts around Brexit haven’t changed at the start of a new week: there is

By 4 October 2018

NFP preview: Expectations are high, but will NFP disapp ...

The US labour market data for September will be released on Friday 5th October at 1330 BST. The market’s official expectation is for a headline Non Farm Payroll figure of 185k for September, down from August’s reading of 201k. However, with a recent spate of spectacular economic data out of the US, and positive sentiment

By 4 October 2018

Week Ahead: October 10th 2018

The trading week may have been determined by the US Non Farm Payrolls last week and the sharp rise in US Treasury yields, but some key fundamental events are taking place this week which may also trigger volatility in financial markets. We are looking at three key events for financial markets this week.   Chinese

By 2 October 2018

Trade Idea: More room for the loonie to run

There will be traders who are worried that they have missed the recent good run for the loonie. We think that there could be more gains to come, and the Canadian dollar is one currency that could do well vs. the USD in the coming weeks. We think this for four reasons: 1, The US-Mexico-Canada

By 2 October 2018

Eurozone debt crisis 2.0?

The big news on Tuesday is that Italian bond yields are lurching higher once more and have tested the air above 3.4% earlier today. This is spooking the markets, with European stocks a sea of red and safe-haven currencies benefitting. The markets have seen a Eurozone debt crisis unfold before: first one country goes down

By 27 September 2018

Week Ahead: 1st October 2018

As we start a new quarter, investors will be watching some key economic data releases in the coming days that could set the tone for FX and stock markets in the coming weeks and months. Below we point out three key events to watch out for this week. 1, Japanese Tankan Index: Q3 Early on

By 27 September 2018

Trade Idea: Why US indices could be at their peak

The Fed may have raised its GDP projection for 2018, however, bad omens for US growth are starting to mount. The Markit PMI report for September saw a steep decline in the composite index, which fell to its lowest level since June 2017. As you can see in chart 1 below, the Markit PMI index

By 27 September 2018

Italy Budget: Positive bond sale suggests fears overblo ...

Italy’s new government faces its first real test today: can the fragile coalition of radicals and centrists present a coherent budget that is palatable to the EU and won’t break the bank? If the results of this morning’s Italian debt auction are anything to go by, then the market is confident a crisis can be

By 26 September 2018

Initial Fed thoughts: No surprises from the Fed as doll ...

The Federal Reserve hiked rates as expected and pointed to a further rate hike in December; however, expectations for rates in 2019 remained unchanged. On the growth front, the 2018 GDP projection was raised from 2.8% to 3.1%, the 2019 expectation for GDP was raised a touch to 2.5% from 2.4%. However, this wasn’t enough

By 20 September 2018

Week Ahead: 24th September 2018

This is a busy week for financial markets, with plenty that could drive asset prices. Below, we look at three key events to watch for this week. 1, The Italian Budget After months of discussions and market nervousness, the deadline for the fragile Italian coalition government to deliver its inaugural budget is Thursday 27th September.

By 20 September 2018

Why the pound’s rally could be capped, and warning si ...

As we approach the end of the week the political rhetoric that has been impacting volatility in recent weeks has started to calm down. Rather than lurch from political comment to political comment, traders are able to sit back and take a broader view of the markets. This, dare I say it, noise-free day in

By 19 September 2018

Can Theresa May save the pound?

All eyes will be on British PM Theresa May as she makes her way to Salzburg today to address EU leaders over dinner this evening. This informal summit is considered a turning point for Brexit: will the UK be able to pull the ultimate deal (single market access and frictionless trade, minus free movement of

By 13 September 2018

Round up: central bank deluge and weak US economic data ...

Bond, stock and FX markets have all experienced some big moves today on the back of a deluge of central bank meetings and some weak US economic data, which weighed heavily on the dollar. The question now is whether today’s events will prove to be a watershed moment for markets with the pound making its

By 13 September 2018

Super Thursday: TRY surges as CBRT surprises the market ...

The deluge of central bank decisions has begun, with the BOE and CBRT in Turkey both releasing their decisions. Looking at Turkey first, the CBRT has delivered a mega rate hike to 24% from 17.75%; the market had expected 21%. This has triggered an immediate 8% jump in the TRY vs. the USD as the

By 12 September 2018

ECB could boost Brexit prospects as China placates the ...

European markets are basking in the glow of a fresh Chinese liquidity injection this morning, with markets a sea of green as we head into London lunchtime. Today’s move by the PBOC has also given some respite to the struggling Aussie dollar, which has managed to find some temporary support at 0.7120, which is just

By 5 September 2018

Amazon vs. the rest of the world, what next for US stoc ...

  As we move into the autumn months, it’s worth looking more closely at the US stock market, which appears to have disconnected from other risk markets. For example, Amazon made a fresh record high on Tuesday and became another trillion-dollar company. In contrast, the South African rand is close to a record low and

By 5 September 2018

Is the EM FX sell off overdone?

  Emerging markets are in focus for another day. The South African rand made a fresh 2-year intraday low versus the USD and is now more than 4% lower since Monday. Contagion has taken hold, and emerging market FX is a sea of red today, this has also spread to the emerging market equity space,

By 5 September 2018

What makes a great trader?

Hundreds of people come through the doors of Learn to Trade every month looking to learn to trade, we recently spoke to Clive, Senior Trader at Learn to Trade, about life as a trader and the characteristics that make a good one.   How did you get into trading? After leaving school I went straight

By 3 September 2018

Why US equities could continue to outperform

  Markets across the board are struggling with uncertainty on Thursday, and US equity futures are all pointing lower at the time of writing. Events weighing on investors include, the continuing trade dispute between the US and China, which has flared its head once again, and the as yet unsigned Nafta deal is also leaving

By 29 August 2018

Trump’s impact on US GDP, and why the Brazilian real ...

  US stock index futures have turned lower even though the second reading of Q2 GDP was revised higher to 4.2% from 4% initially. Personal consumption slipped a little, to 3.8% from 4%, however private investment and trade helped to boost the overall GDP report.   Trump’s trade tariffs pay dividends already The impact of

By 21 August 2018

Why you can’t trust Trump when it comes to the dollar

  What do you do if you want a currency to move 100 pips in 24 hours in mid-August? The answer is simple; wait for a President to talk down his currency and criticize his central bank. No, this is not Turkey, this is the US, where President Trump pulled a ‘President Erdogan’ and told

By 20 August 2018

Simon Garner spoke to Finance Monthly UK this week, on ...

Finance Monthly UK caught up with our Trading Floor Manager, Simon Garner, recently about what he views as important to understand when trading.  Consideration of strategy through your trade expectancy can make all the difference in quality trade over quantity… Read on to get further insight at Finance Monthly UK

By 20 August 2018

Turkey bailout fails to boost TRY, as Italy weighs on t ...

  The Turkish lira is the worst performing currency in the FX space today after a spokesman for the German Chancellor ruled out financial assistance for Erdogan’s government. Considering today sees the final tranche of bailout money handed out to Greece, it is unlikely to be one in, one out on the bailout front if

By 15 August 2018

Learn to Trade brings its award winning trading session ...

    Learn to Trade is delighted to announce it will be running a number of free trading taster workshops in Oxford in August for the first time, in response to growing demand across the UK in people wanting to learn to trade. The sessions will introduce people to forex trading, otherwise known as foreign

By 2 August 2018

Why family matters to me and my new friends and family ...

By Greg Secker I don’t think it would be any surprise to anyone who knows me, that my biggest passion in life are my children and family. They are the driving force behind everything I do and bring me a level of joy that cannot be measured. So, as we enter into August and the

By 1 August 2018

Bank of England preview: It’s not about the rate hike ...

  The Bank of England will reveal its third Inflation Report of the year on Thursday 2nd August at 1200 BST. The market is pretty much convinced that the BOE will hike rates, the GBP Overnight Index Swaps market is pricing in a rate hike this week with a 91% probability. Usually when the market

By 31 July 2018

Idea of the day: Can Apple save tech?

  Apple will announce its earnings at 2130 BST this evening, and it is easily the biggest event for stock markets today, even this week. After some big earnings misses from the likes of Netflix, Facebook and Twitter, the heat is on for Apple to deliver at least the $2.18 earnings per share that the

By 31 July 2018

ECB in a bind, BOJ plays stick not twist, and why the d ...

  Inflation may become the hot new topic for financial markets as we move into the latter stages of the summer months. The July CPI rate for the Eurozone came in stronger than expected at 2.1%, the fastest rate of price growth since 2012. Core prices are also rising, albeit at a slower pace, to

By 30 July 2018

Understanding volatility and the summer months

  As we reach the end of July it is worth looking at volatility, which can be notoriously hard to predict in the summer months. The Vix index is close to its average of the last 12 months, at 13.48, the average of the past year is 13.68. However, it is worth noting that since

By 30 July 2018

Week Ahead: 30th July 2018

    Central banks and data deluge to drive August markets   As we start a new week the Vix index (Wall Street’s fear gauge) is sitting at 13.45, a notch below the average of the past 12 months, which comes in at 13.68. However, this figure is worth watching, as it could end the

By 25 July 2018

What’s driving the dollar?

  After last week’s 12-month high in the dollar index, you might wonder who or what cut short the rally. The dollar index has stalled this week and is down some 100 pips from Friday’s high. Trump puts his oar into the FX market, again Part of the reason for the decline is the Trump

By 24 July 2018

European stocks: ripe to shine

  European stocks are recouping Monday’s losses as investors become more comfortable with holding risk. The turnaround is down to better PMIs in the Eurozone as well as strong US earnings, and growing expectations that the US Q2 GDP report will beat expectations after White House advisors have said that they expect a 5% annualised

By 23 July 2018

Two things to watch in FX this week

    Two key events are dominating the FX world this morning: the first is the Reuters report that the Bank of Japan will alter its stimulus programme. The yen is the top performing currency in the G10 this morning, which reverses a month-long period of weakness for JPY.   The report suggests that the

By 23 July 2018

Idea of the Day: Can we reach 3,000 in the S&P 500 ...

    The S&P 500 may have made a fresh 4-month high this week, but we have seen more tentative moves from investors – one day up, one day down.  The daily price moves remain small, which is why the Vix (volatility index) remains at a low level. The index is hovering around the 2,800 level,

By 19 July 2018

Greg Secker: Vibrancy, diversity and giving back – be ...

By Greg Secker Recently Rachel and I were invited to Paris by Louis Vuitton on an all-expenses paid trip to the launch of their new designer Virgil Abloh’s new collection. As the only invited clients from the UK it was quite the honour and an incredible experience. The fashion show itself was like something out

By 19 July 2018

UK retail sales: blame it on the weatherman…

  The UK retail sales report was much weaker than expected, with headline sales falling 0.6% in June, the annual rate of sales growth slowed to 3% from 4.4% in May. Although retail sales figures can be volatile, there is a growing sense that the UK economy is slowing down sharply, and with the political

By 17 July 2018

How much trading capital do you need to earn £100,000 ...

    An £100,000 salary is the kind of money that many people can only dream of earning.  With those that do find themselves within the top 5 per cent of earners in the UK, it is well out of reach for most of us. In this article we take a look at how much

By 17 July 2018

Politics proves toxic for the pound once again

The pound’s sensitivity to Brexit-inspired political discord has flared up once again. On Tuesday GBP is dipping on the back of fears that Theresa May’s government could face defeat in the Commons if Labour sides with pro-European MPs and calls for the UK to remain in the Customs Union if there is no trade deal

By 17 July 2018

Pound muted after typical UK jobs report

  The latest UK labour market report for May/ June was more of the same: the unemployment rate remains at a record low of 4.2%, yet wage data stubbornly refuses to go anywhere. The bright spot is job creation, which continues to defy expectations. The UK economy has created more jobs than expected in the

By 16 July 2018

US retail sales take a knock as oil drives the FTSE 100 ...

  The FTSE 100 is the worst performer in the European equity space so far today as it faces a perfect summer storm of a stronger pound, weak energy prices and some notable under-performers including Debenhams. Not even a government announcement of investment in the aerospace sector, can boost the index. However, the aerospace news

By 11 July 2018

What makes a great trader? Interview with FX and indice ...

  Hundreds of people come through the doors of Learn to Trade every month looking to learn to trade, we recently spoke to Henry Ward, an FX and indices market trader and mentor at Learn to Trade, about being a trader and the characteristics that make a good one.   How did you get into

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